Morgan is cast on the near future releases a report to say, no matter CPI returns be data of fixed assets investment to drop, mean macroscopical policy farther constrictive possibility is lesser. From on card of aggregate index go in light of situation, grail has been been in 7 weeks continuously drop situation, at the beginning of August since accumulative total drops more than 25% , the panicky mood of investor was reflected on certain level, can judge, short-term inside pessimistic atmosphere is eliminated very hard still. On the other hand, this kind of environment that drops urgently also offerred for value investor better in long term the opportunity of layout.
Morgan is cast to point out on, to the reason that CPI drops quickly, on the market unscramble go up for food price drop and become warped end element. Because base is inferior September last year, together with 9, two months 10 mid-autumn, element of National Day holiday is driven, the market anticipates CPI may appear small rebound, but will drop again November. And appear the price in succession as crude oil, steely, coal, nonferrous metal callback, the amplitude of PPI began to drop likely September. Notable is, CPI data is medium August, blame food price rises a stability in 2.1% , the PPI that shows tall look forward to goes up did not conduct in the round to CPI. Although the market is relatively hopeful to the anticipation of CPI and PPI, but seasonal the possibility that the existence that reachs the element such as resource price reform still makes inflationary existence rebounds.
On the other hand, from national statistic bureau last week 5 those who release industry increased cost data to look August, business of industry of countrywide dimensions above (year advocate business Wu income the enterprise of 5 million yuan of above) increase a value to grow 12.8% compared to the same period, than going up fall after a rise of year of the corresponding period 4.7 percent, achieve the low that comes 6 years. Customs total office releases data of imports and exports and national statistic bureau released August fixed assets invested data in August, show the trend that amplitude drops. Our country economy is added fast gliding risk already very big, policy face is farther constrictive possibility is lesser.
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