U.S. Treasury alleged decline of 20% is entirely possible investment in private
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Will Burrows (Wilbur Ross) spent his life dealing with bankrupt companies, bankruptcy reorganization because of good business, "Fortune" magazine in 1998 gave him "the king of bankruptcy" in the title. However, Rothschild served as executive managing director for 20 years, because they can not act as advisers to invest in your company, the nation's one-third of its investment business of bankrupt enterprises missed. In 2000, Ross set up his own private equity fund WL Ross & Co, I served as chairman and CEO. After five years in the business, he successfully squeezed into the "Forbes" magazine world richest people. Rose is considered the world's most prestigious private equity investor in private equity funds have acquired his giant Bethlehem Steel and several other bankrupt companies. Several steel companies in the revitalization of this, he was for 4.5 billion dollars to Sold to the world's largest steel company Mittal, Mittal, Ross currently serves as the Director of the Company. Because the acquisition of the business too much, Ross currently serves as chairman of International Coal Group, International Textile Group Chairman, International Auto Parts Group Chairman, and he also has a number of telecommunications companies, the subprime mortgage companies and other All sectors of the company. October 30, Rose in New York, Chinese American Finance Association (TCFA) 16th Annual Meeting of the keynote speech, accepted the "21st Century Business Herald," the individual interview. Ross believes that China's foreign exchange investment in the U.S. States Debt security is not high compared with investment in private equity funds, the interest rate cycle reversed if the United States, the U.S. Treasury may well fall by 20%. Usefulness of the quantitative easing will not have too many "21st Century": You Fed the quantitative easing (QE) assessment? Ross: Fed to buy more U.S. treasury bonds of the new project, but no matter how much they buy U.S. government bonds will not be too useful. The reason is that U.S. banks have over 1 trillion of reserves, he These are still not lending out money. Even if you give them hundreds of billions of dollars, I think they still will not take the money out. QE has two consequences, one of the dollar even more pressure on the formation, this may be of some use. The second consequence is that more people refinancing their mortgages, which consumer spending will improve slightly, due to To reduce the burden of housing loan interest. In addition, I think no use. "21st Century": but this may be only a few hundred billion dollars a few months, do you think the Federal Reserve purchases of assets in this round will do after? Ross: how to depend largely on economic conditions, particularly unemployment. January next year when we will have a new Congress. Republicans hope to promote lower taxes to stimulate the economy, the will to do this thing Much higher than the quantitative easing. At that time the debate may turn to discuss the tax, rather than the QE. "21st Century": How do you see QE impact on the market? "Bond king," Gross said 30-year bond bull market came to an end. Ross: Yes, in a node will eventually end. It is clear now than before further away from the end, the reason is very simple, the interest rate over a longer period of time have been lower. In addition, at a certain node, we can not have both trade and budget deficits, without causing inflation. From a global perspective, if you add up all the government deficit, the total net deficit is about the global economy 6% of the amount, which means that the government each year than the previous year to more borrowed money. I think China has done very well in this regard. China's central government debt has been maintained at 25% of the total economy level, very, very low, less than United States third. Therefore, China and the world in this area is relatively isolated. If interest rates rise, the U.S. deficit will be a sharp change, a very simple reason is that they need to pay more interest. So obviously the theme of the next stage, that is, interest rates will rise. Now close to The bottom of the interest rate, the future may also be decreased by 20 basis points, who knows. But the general direction, the interest rates fall clearly over, the next step must be the super-going in the opposite direction. Can not attract enough U.S. engineers should be "21st Century": Do you think the Fed's policy effects will be very limited. In the end they need to do something that can really boost the U.S. economy, improve employment? Ross: First of all, the United States on the employment of a more long-term problem that can not attract enough engineers and keep them in the United States. Historically, the U.S. economy to maintain a vigorous development of the main reasons Is due to technological leadership. China and India are graduating engineers each year in the United States seven times. But also in the United States, about half of the foreign students can not because of not get a visa to stay in the United States, they had to choose Choose to leave. This is a very bad thing. If you put so much talent left to engineers, but also their costs are relatively low, the Western world very different situation. So if we need to stimulate the U.S. Economy, we need a change of policy. Now is the expulsion of U.S. engineers and engineers in overseas imports of these products. We should be replaced by imports of the brain, and their output exported out. I think the Republican Party More likely to support this approach. Our research and development, government needs to put more spending. Now the federal government than Bush in the R & D expenditure is much lower when the first ruling. This is a big problem. I think In the long run, this is the United States faced a very serious structural problems. The short term, I think that is undergoing adjustment. This means that economic growth will slow next few years. Consumers are repairing their balance sheets, consumers in the housing value has fallen by 11 trillion, Down their debt, but only a few trillion dollars, mainly because of the gap between the emergence of asset defaults and credit writedowns. Consumption accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy is the engine of the U.S. economy, they must meet the same water Level of debt write-down to achieve the same level of the consumer to be able to stabilize and re-driven economic growth.
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