Companion explodes as the dollar send the appreciating of type, the RMB that appreciates to dollar unilateral before this begins to answer firm, the anticipation that continues to appreciate is reduced greatly. The price of long-dated even market shows, began the earliest 2009, the RMB devalues possibly.

Dollar of “ RMB add a year of long-dated price from April the middle ten days of a month 6.3 drop now 6.7 around, the low that this is this year not only, also be long-dated trade the low on the history. ”9 month 11 days, the member that the foreign currency of one Shanghai bank trades expresses.

That day, churchyard RMB add dollar agio of a year of long-dated price (forward exchange rate under immediate exchange rate) nod 692 times, far under peak period agio of thousands of bits. This causes what whether the market continues to devalue to RMB add dollar to guess not only, the storehouse of large-scale to developing fund to be forced behead that also makes damage serious, enterprise of settlement of exchange supports foreign currency wait-and-see.

This year April the middle ten days of a month, the RMB on market of the NDF outside the condition one year long-dated price is add dollar 6.3 the left and right sides, agio is nodded thousands of times, to September 11 the price falls to 6.74 in the morning, agio only 1000 bits. Churchyard market is long-dated price agio is more contractible nod for 692. This means the market to future of dollar of 12 months RMB add appreciate anticipate only 1% is control.

Not only such, the dot difference of long-dated price outside churchyard is narrowing ceaselessly. The bank is believed in (601998) market analysis is in Yang Shengkun to express, the anticipation that the market outside “ general situation appreciates to the RMB always is prep above churchyard, two markets nod poor ceaseless narrow recently, appeared even churchyard appreciates the circumstance outside anticipating prep above condition. ”

With was on September 3 exemple, after NDF market value shows RMB add dollar one year, appreciate 0.8% , and churchyard price shows appreciate 1.1% . On September 4, extent appreciates to increase outside the condition for 1.5% to 1.6% , price of prep above churchyard.

Broken bits hits a bank to release a report to think to this, “9 is a historic hour, churchyard of RMB add dollar is long-dated price first time under market of the NDF outside the condition. ” broken bits is hit express, this kind is in collect the appearance that since changing, never has had, be in nearly a few weeks to appear suddenly however.

Peng Wensheng indicates the economist of Ba Kelai capital, long-dated price is in low to basically appreciate quickly by near future dollar and effective exchange rate raises the RMB quickly cause. And one in the member that battalion of endowment travel capital carries the center trades expresses, to churchyard market character, dollar financing is abundant also be the account that long-dated price takes low.
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